IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Saint Joseph's
Atlantic 10
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-0.8	#174
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	75.1	#46
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.1	#122

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-2.8	#255

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	1.8%	4.1%	1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.8%	2.4%	0.5%
Average Seed	11.4	10.8	11.9

.500 or above	16.7%	33.2%	13.3%
.500 or above in Conference	21.3%	32.1%	19.1%
Conference Champion	1.0%	2.1%	0.8%
Last Place in Conference	19.2%	9.5%	21.2%

First Four	0.4%	1.1%	0.2%
First Round	1.6%	3.5%	1.2%
Second Round	0.4%	1.0%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Auburn (Neutral) - 17.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 3	0 - 3
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 5
Quad 2	1 - 6	2 - 11
Quad 3	4 - 6	6 - 17
Quad 4	3 - 1	10 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 26, 2020	60	Auburn	L	75-85	17%
Nov 27, 2020	4	Kansas	L	67-85	5%
Nov 30, 2020	3	@ Villanova	L	65-87	3%
Dec 05, 2020	117	@ Bradley	L	73-80	27%
Dec 08, 2020	195	St. Peter's	W	76-72	66%
Dec 12, 2020	145	Temple	W	79-78	54%
Dec 16, 2020	190	@ Drexel	L	77-79	44%
Dec 19, 2020	257	Mount St. Mary's	W	75-67	76%
Dec 30, 2020	99	Virginia Commonwealth	L	75-78	40%
Jan 03, 2021	93	@ Rhode Island	L	76-85	21%
Jan 06, 2021	85	@ St. Bonaventure	L	70-80	19%
Jan 09, 2021	52	Saint Louis	L	72-80	26%
Jan 12, 2021	81	@ Davidson	L	70-81	18%
Jan 18, 2021	157	@ La Salle	L	76-80	37%
Jan 20, 2021	123	@ George Mason	L	73-80	30%
Jan 23, 2021	123	George Mason	L	76-77	48%
Jan 26, 2021	53	Richmond	L	76-84	27%
Jan 30, 2021	90	@ Duquesne	L	73-83	20%
Feb 03, 2021	85	St. Bonaventure	L	73-77	37%
Feb 06, 2021	157	La Salle	W	79-77	57%
Feb 13, 2021	47	@ Dayton	L	71-85	13%
Feb 17, 2021	198	@ George Washington	L	75-76	45%
Feb 20, 2021	81	Davidson	L	73-78	35%
Feb 24, 2021	128	Massachusetts	L	79-80	50%
Feb 27, 2021	201	@ Fordham	L	68-69	46%
Mar 02, 2021	93	Rhode Island	L	79-82	40%
Projected Record						9 - 17	6 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0		1.0	1st
2nd											0.0	0.2	0.5	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0				1.8	2nd
3rd										0.0	0.2	1.0	0.9	0.4	0.1						2.6	3rd
4th										0.2	1.0	1.5	0.6	0.0							3.4	4th
5th									0.1	1.2	2.5	0.9	0.1								4.8	5th
6th								0.0	1.1	2.6	1.3	0.2	0.0								5.3	6th
7th							0.0	0.7	3.2	2.4	0.5	0.0									6.8	7th
8th						0.0	0.5	2.9	3.8	0.8	0.0										8.0	8th
9th					0.0	0.3	2.6	4.2	1.4	0.1											8.6	9th
10th				0.0	0.3	2.1	5.1	2.4	0.2	0.0											10.1	10th
11th			0.0	0.2	2.1	4.9	3.5	0.4	0.0												11.1	11th
12th		0.0	0.2	2.0	5.0	3.9	0.8	0.0													12.0	12th
13th		0.4	2.4	5.2	3.9	0.9	0.1														13.0	13th
14th	1.3	3.6	3.5	2.5	0.6	0.0															11.5	14th

Total	1.3	4.0	6.2	10.0	11.9	12.2	12.7	10.6	9.9	7.3	5.6	3.7	2.1	1.3	0.8	0.4	0.1	0.0	0.0			Total

Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
16-2	93.1%	0.1		0.1	0.0
15-3	63.0%	0.2		0.1	0.1	0.0
14-4	44.9%	0.3		0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-5	16.5%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
12-6	3.3%	0.1			0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.2%	0.0					0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	1.0%	1.0		0.4	0.4	0.1	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%										0.0
17-1	0.0%								0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
16-2	0.1%		72.4%	22.4%	50.0%	8.7					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.0					0.0		64.4%
15-3	0.4%		63.5%	15.6%	47.9%	9.9								0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.1		56.7%
14-4	0.8%		31.4%	9.7%	21.7%	10.4							0.0		0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0				0.5		24.1%
13-5	1.3%		21.4%	8.3%	13.1%	11.4									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0			1.0		14.3%
12-6	2.1%		13.8%	6.3%	7.5%	11.6									0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0			1.8		8.0%
11-7	3.7%		5.2%	3.9%	1.3%	12.3										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0		3.5		1.4%
10-8	5.6%		3.1%	2.8%	0.2%	12.7											0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0		5.4		0.2%
9-9	7.3%		1.4%	1.3%	0.1%	13.0												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.2		0.1%
8-10	9.9%		0.3%	0.3%		13.9													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.9
7-11	10.6%		0.5%	0.5%		15.3														0.0		0.0	0.0	10.6
6-12	12.7%		0.3%	0.3%		15.5																0.0	0.0	12.6
5-13	12.2%		0.1%	0.1%		15.8															0.0		0.0	12.2
4-14	11.9%																							11.9
3-15	10.0%																							10.0
2-16	6.2%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	6.2
1-17	4.0%																							4.0
0-18	1.3%																							1.3

Total	100%		1.8%	0.9%	0.8%	11.4			0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	98.2		0.8%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.2%